Clear accounts and thick chocolate: Policy transparency amid Colombia’s challenges

In a world of economic uncertainty and geopolitical shifts, Canadian businesses looking to diversify should heed the Colombian proverb “Las cuentas claras y el chocolate espeso” (clear accounts and thick chocolate). This saying–which suggests that just as you want your chocolate to be thick, you want your accounts to be clear and transparent–emphasizes the importance of transparency and clear communication in financial matters.

Colombia, a country of 54 million, thrives on transparency and clear rules in commercial relations. While businesses here certainly have a sweet tooth for rich returns, they like their chocolate thick, demanding policy and regulatory predictability as key ingredients for success.

As a major global cocoa producer, Colombia is renowned not only for its delicious chocolate and vibrant culture, but also for its natural resource endowments, young population, burgeoning middle class and strategic location as a regional trade hub.

Colombia’s economic growth

Colombia’s accession to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reflects its stable economic growth, prudent macroeconomic management, robust democratic institutions and investor-friendly policy environment. Despite some governance shortcomings, Colombia compares relatively favourably against regional peers.

From a structural perspective, Colombia checks many of the boxes that drive investment interest. It’s no wonder that many Canadian companies have long considered Colombia a prime target for foreign direct investment and a stable partner in trade. The Canada-Colombia Free Trade Agreement underpins these strong commercial relations, providing stability and predictability for Canadian exporters and investors.

Colombia’s political and policy uncertainty

But recent years have seen sluggish economic growth, a stalled legislative agenda, deteriorating fiscal discipline and the loss of investment-grade status. A traditionally conservative country, Colombia’s political shift to a leftist administration also heightens concerns about macro-fiscal prudence.

Policy uncertainty has undermined business spending, pulling the fixed investment rate below capital replacement needs. The controversial halting of fossil fuel exploration in favour of a climate transition agenda raises questions around energy security and resulting economic and fiscal impacts.

General elections in early 2026, rising political polarization, deteriorating security and President Gustavo Petro’s calls for protests and popular consultations add to the uncertainty. Canadian businesses might question whether Colombia is departing from its traditional “clear accounts and thick chocolate” approach.

Post-pandemic, Colombia experienced a rise in socioeconomic demands, favouring the agenda of the leftist parties. The country also saw a marked increase in political polarization and legislative fragmentation. This complex backdrop hindered government effectiveness but also precluded radical shifts.

The Colombian electorate prefers gradual change, which may favour the electoral fortunes of centrist parties. Regardless of political stripe, however, the next administration is likely to maintain, if only refine, Colombia’s traditional recipe for success.

The bottom line: Potential opportunities for Canadian exporters

Colombia’s economy is recovering, with growth expected to stabilize at around 2.5% over the coming years, along with falling inflation and declining interest rates. While global uncertainty is a risk, Colombia stands to benefit from increased China-United States competition.

Once uncertainty subsides, pent-up demand could offer upside potential for businesses seeking new opportunities. Expectations that Colombia will keep its accounts clear mean plenty of thick chocolate for Canadian exporters and investors navigating this vibrant market. 

This week, a very special thanks to Daniel Benatuil, senior country risk analyst for Latin America.

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