Global Economic Outlook—Winter 2026

Resilience meets uncertainty: What’s next for global growth?

A year into sweeping policy changes in the United States and China, the global economy has defied the worst predictions—but the game has changed. Growth is holding steady, trade continues and businesses are adapting to a new reality shaped by tariffs, shifting alliances and political uncertainty.

What’s in our forecast?

• Global growth edges up: Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, but still trails historical averages.
• Trade barriers persist: Tariffs and policy volatility aren’t going away anytime soon, reshaping supply chains and strategies.
• U.S. outlook: Growth hovers near 2%, supported by infrastructure investment and tax incentives—even as consumer confidence wavers.
• Canada rebounds: After a tough year, growth is forecast at 1.2% in 2026, with stronger momentum ahead.
• China and Europe diverge: China leans on exports while Europe grapples with uncertainty and sluggish growth.

Why it matters:
The global economy is entering its weakest three-year stretch in decades. Inflation challenges linger, volatility is here to stay and businesses need to recalibrate for a world where resilience and strategy are everything.

Get the full story:
Download EDC’s latest Global Economic Outlook for deeper insights on trade dynamics, interest rates, currency trends and country-specific forecasts—critical intelligence for Canadian exporters navigating an era of change.