EDC’s Trade Confidence Index shows exporters adapting amid uncertainty

Key takeaways from EDC’s Trade Confidence Index

1. Trade confidence improves, but remains below historical levels

Overall, trade confidence rose four index points from the mid-year survey to 69.7 at year-end 2025. While still below the historical average, the index has improved from its fourth-lowest reading as exporters brace for continued uncertainty

2. Confidence gains driven by factors exporters can control

All components of the Trade Confidence Index increased, led by improvements tied to outcomes within exporters’ control. Uncertainty surrounding broader economic conditions, however, continues to weigh on sentiment.

3. Exporters beyond the U.S. show stronger confidence

Companies exporting beyond the United States report higher trade confidence and a more optimistic outlook for global economic conditions, international business prospects and export sales.

4. Europe and the Asia-Pacific lead expansion plans

Europe and the Asia-Pacific are the Top 2 regions cited for near-term expansion, reflecting exporters’ efforts to diversify across multiple markets rather than relying on a single destination.

5. Free trade agreements remain underused

Free trade agreements (FTAs) are effective market entry tools, yet nearly one-third of eligible exporters aren’t using them, despite their role in reducing tariffs, trade friction and regulatory complexity.

6. Challenges persist despite improving confidence

Despite improving confidence, exporters continue to face a wide range of financial and non-financial challenges, underscoring the ongoing complexity of the global trade environment. 

About EDC’s Trade Confidence Index

This TCI survey was conducted between Dec. 4, 2025, and Jan. 15, 2026, and released on March 5, 2026. Twice a year, EDC surveys Canadian exporters and businesses planning to export to assess their confidence and expectations for international trade opportunities over the next six months.