Insights from EDC’s chief economist
Export outlook weakens amid trade and tariff pressures
Export Development Canada’s Trade Confidence Index (TCI) has dropped to one of its lowest levels on record, even as Canadian exporters pursue new markets to manage rising uncertainty. The latest survey reflects growing concern amid escalating global trade headwinds, while also highlighting a more targeted approach to diversification.
Since 1999, EDC has surveyed Canadian exporters and ready-to-export businesses twice annually to capture timely, forward-looking insights not found in traditional trade statistics. The TCI captures the perspectives of more than 1,000 companies on their international strategies, expectations and challenges.
In this round, 1,073 respondents participated between May 30 and July 13, 2025. The TCI score—based on responses from 688 exporters—dropped by 3.3 points from year-end 2024 and sits 6.8 points below the historical average, landing at 65.7. This is one of the lowest readings on record, with the index falling below this level only during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the post-pandemic inflation surge.