The outlook according to Canadian exporters

Export Development Canada’s Trade Confidence Index (TCI) captures the perspectives of 2,200 Canadian exporters and ready-to-export businesses. The TCI reveals timely and forward-looking information not readily available in traditional trade statistics. The biannual index highlights the concerns and expectations of Canadian companies for the future, and their evolving international strategies. EDC has conducted this survey since 1999.

Overall outlook: The TCI’s key findings

1. Canadian trade confidence has dropped 1.1 index points since our May 2024 survey and remains below the historical average.

1. Trade Confidence Index drops to 69. Red arrow pointing down shows drop of 1.1 index points since spring 2024.

2. Geopolitical concerns and tariff uncertainties are impacting exporter sentiment, causing a negative outlook on domestic and global economic conditions.

2. Graph showing rise in negative outlook by survey respondents toward world and domestic economic conditions.

3. Survey respondents continue to be worried about terms and conditions for obtaining financing.

3. Four graphs highlight continued concern around terms and conditions for obtaining financing.

4. As Canadian exporters face critical challenges, their intent to diversify to new markets has dropped three percentage points since the last survey.

4. Pie chart shows decrease in intention of survey respondents to diversify their export markets

5. For companies planning to start exporting to new destinations, there’s continued interest in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and Mexico.

Two dock logistic managers oversee safe loading of cargo.

5. Top planned export destinations illustrated with country flags: United States 56%, United Kingdom 23%, Germany and Mexico 22%, France 20%

About EDC’s Trade Confidence Index

This TCI survey was conducted between Nov. 14 and Dec. 20, 2024, and released on April 16. Twice a year, EDC surveys Canadian exporters and businesses planning to export. The results are a pulse check of their level of confidence and expectations of international trade opportunities over the next six months.

In this TCI release, 2,200 companies responded to our survey. The TCI data is weighted to represent the Canadian exporter and ready-to-export population. Our next TCI release is slated for later this year. Its results may look markedly different, reflecting today’s market realities.

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EDC’s Trade Confidence Index exporter survey—December 2024