The results and ripples from these elections will continue to spread into 2025 and beyond. For example, in Mexico—one of the rare countries where incumbents excelled—significant constitutional reforms have been undertaken following the June elections, including those focused on the judicial system. This has shaken confidence and the value of the peso as investors wait to see the extent of the legal system’s changes.
Elections for the European Union (EU) parliament will also shift the policy outlook for the region. They have already destabilized the governments in France—with a new fractured parliament following sudden summer elections—and Germany, where elections await following the government’s collapse. With newer and populist parties gaining vote share across Europe, policy uncertainty will increase in 2025.
As the world’s largest economy, the election results in the United States are likely to have the most notable impact. The incoming Trump administration has indicated that it’ll focus on the trade terms with other countries and attempt to alter the balance of trade with China. This builds on the outgoing administration’s tightening duties on China’s electric vehicle production and preventing Chinese steel and aluminum from entering the U.S. via other countries. Additionally, the incoming administration will likely review and potential adjustment the existing Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), shaping continental and potentially global trade flows.
The currents from these elections mean that global trade and Canadian companies will need to plan for and manage the potential impact of geopolitics. Staying informed, developing plans and strategies that account for political and economic choices, and working with partners will be key to navigating the changing environment.
