Navigating turbulent waters amid trade uncertainty
Insights from EDC’s chief economist
As global markets grapple with increased volatility and uncertainty, Canadian companies are navigating the stormy seas of new tariffs and trade measures. EDC’s chief economist, Stuart Bergman, dives deep into these challenges in our latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) report.
For a comprehensive analysis of the global economic landscape, this essential resource provides detailed overviews of key countries, interest rates, commodity prices and exchange rates, helping you make informed business decisions.
Key highlights:
- U.S. economic outlook: The U.S. economy benefits from supportive domestic conditions, including a stable labour market. However, recent data suggests consumer spending is slowing and confidence is wavering due to unpredictable economic policies. We forecast U.S. economic growth at 1.7% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
- Canada’s economic challenges: The Canadian economy entered 2025 stronger than anticipated, but consumer sentiment has slumped since the new U.S. administration took office. Business investment is struggling under trade uncertainty. We expect the Canadian economy to grow by 0.8% in 2025 and 1% in 2026.
- Global growth projections: EDC Economics expects the global economy to grow by 2.6% in 2025 and 3% in 2026. Europe and China face challenges due to policy uncertainties and economic headwinds.
- Interest and exchange rates: The U.S. Federal Reserve has taken a restrained approach, with only one rate cut forecast for 2025, followed by four cuts in 2026. The Bank of Canada has aggressively cut interest rates to support the economy amid tariffs and higher prices.
- Commodity prices: The weak global picture in 2025 will weigh on demand and prices for key commodities. We forecast West Texas Intermediate oil prices to average around US$67 due to soft demand and spare capacity.
Why read the Global Economic Outlook?
- Geopolitical economic impacts: Understand how geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues are shaping the global economy.
- Interest and exchange rates: Stay updated on key interest and exchange rates for Canada, Europe and the United States.
- Commodity prices: Find out how commodities such as oil, natural gas, copper, and gold are performing globally.
EDC Economics’ Global Economic Outlook calls for a choppy few years ahead. Stay informed by reading the full report.
